The Final 2024 NFL Mock Draft: 4 QBs selected in top 5, Chiefs trade up?
With the upcoming draft coming Thursday, we do our final mock draft. Will there be chaos, or will it be a calm storm? Soon we will find out.
The offensive side of the ball in the 2024 NFL Draft is stacked with talented quarterbacks, wide receivers, and offensive tackles who are expected to dominate and make a significant impact on Day 1.
The projection below does not have any defensive players chosen in the top 10 picks and has three chosen in the first half of the first round alone. In terms of imbalance, I can’t recall a period when offense was so dominant.
There has been a lot of speculation that this discrepancy might lead to a flurry of trades. Although this class has many skilled players, it lacks the overall talent that previous years had. Several potential draft picks have opted to remain in college football because of the NIL and transfer regulations. The potential outcome of this situation is that it may discourage trades, as only the most courageous individuals would be willing to offer extra picks to improve their position in this year’s draft.
With that, here is my final mock of the first round ahead of Thursday’s draft.
1. Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams, USC
The first selection in the 2024 NFL Draft is a foregone conclusion, easily the most predictable choice of the draft. Chicago’s need for a new quarterback is evident, and Williams stands out as the most polished prospect since Andrew Luck. Boasting 72 passing touchdowns, Williams possesses the essential skills to rejuvenate the Bears’ offense.
2. Washington Commanders: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
For years, Washington has been searching for a franchise quarterback, and now the new leadership is taking another shot with Drake Maye. With all the tools at his disposal, Maye has the potential to be a standout NFL franchise quarterback. Although Jayden Daniels, the current Heisman Trophy winner, would undoubtedly bring excitement to a fan base desperate for it, Maye’s size, potential, and compatibility with Kliff Kingsbury’s offense makes him the more sensible option for this selection.
3. New England Patriots: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
The Raiders will probably reach out to the Patriots, aiming to acquire Daniels in this position. I’ve heard that Daniels likes Las Vegas more than New England. Nevertheless, the reward for accurately determining the quarterback in this situation keeps drawing my attention. The Patriots might decline the offers and decide to go for it because this opportunity differs significantly from everything else.
The Patriots would almost surely pounce on Williams or Maye if either were available to them here, but for a franchise seeking a true rebuild, Daniels’ dual-threat talents and Heisman pedigree match nicely with new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and could be the perfect departure from the stationary pocket passers who typified the previous era.
4. Minnesota Vikings: JJ McCarthy, Michigan
Mock Trade: Vikings receive pick no. 4; Cardinals receive pick nos. 11, nos. 23, no. 108 and a seventh-rounder.
Yes, the price is very steep to get to this spot. However, Denver’s potential trade of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II convinces Minnesota to move up to the fourth spot to secure their quarterback. McCarthy is a younger and more affordable option compared to Cousins and also brings more agility. Having Justin Jefferson as his primary receiver and Hockenson as another weapon puts him in an excellent position to thrive.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
By stretching defenses vertically, Harrison’s skills will enhance the Chargers’ running game and improve the performance of the team’s other receivers. He will be a valuable asset in the downfield passing game, excelling in play-action situations. Additionally, he will be a reliable target in the middle of the field, capable of making big plays and scoring touchdowns. Malik Nabers is favored by certain teams over Harrison. Rome Odunze may be favored by others. However, Harrison will likely be the first wide receiver chosen, and he would be an ideal fit for both Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh.
6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
Touchdowns are the determining factor in winning the game of football. Scoring touchdowns is not a strong suit for the Giants. Over the past three seasons, they have consistently ranked at the bottom in terms of first-quarter touchdowns. Scoring is a pressing need for New York, but the addition of Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia will further weaken their offense. To support their commitment to quarterback Daniel Jones, the Giants must enhance their lineup by adding dynamic playmakers who can create big plays. Nabers is known for his skill in quickly catching the ball and running, and his scoring capabilities extend to all areas of the field. Nabers will bring a much-needed explosive element to New York’s receiving corps, which has been lacking since Odell Beckham Jr. suffered an ankle injury in 2017.
7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
Despite the opinions of others, I’m confident that this is the best choice in the draft and I’m not wavering from it. His father, John Alt, was a former Chiefs tackle in the NFL, and he has inherited his football talent. Tennessee is in need of a left tackle. Working alongside Titans’ offensive line coach Bill Callahan can help Alt reach an elite status. Alt is a seamless plug-and-play choice at left tackle if he’s available, forming a highly promising duo with Peter Skoronski on the left side for the Titans. If he isn’t there, it’ll be interesting to see what the Titans end up doing.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
An intriguing subplot in the 2024 NFL Draft will unfold when the first defensive player is chosen. Considering the defensive-oriented approach of head coach Raheem Morris, he may advocate for the selection of Turner due to the potential of the former Alabama star. Additionally, it should be noted that Calais Campbell, a 16-year NFL veteran and currently a free agent, led Atlanta in sacks (6.5) and quarterback hits (17) last season. This is a “need” pick with very high upside.
9. Indianapolis Colts: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
Mock trade: Colts receive no. 9; Bears receive No. 15 overall, as well as nos. 82 and no. 116.
The Bears might seriously think about trading down if they can acquire additional picks on Day 2. It would be an uncommon occurrence for the Colts to move up, but if GM Chris Ballard is interested in Bowers, he may need to be assertive and jump ahead of the Jets. Bowers would be an excellent security blanket for Anthony Richardson and could become Dallas Clark 2.0. Bowers is capable of doing almost anything. He provides Coach Shane Steichen with an incredible opportunity and sets up second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson for success. This is a no-brainer!
10. New York Jets: OT JC Latham, Alabama
The Jets made some key moves this offseason by signing veteran left tackle Tyron Smith and trading for right tackle Morgan Moses. However, both players are 33 years old, recovering from injuries, and their contracts only extend until the end of the next season. So, it’s not far fetched that in terms of depth and the future drafting and OT would be a need. Latham’s skill in generating movement in the run game and his ability to widen his stance against edge rushers in pass protection might establish him as the top lineman in his class after three years.
11. Arizona Cardinals: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Since the Cardinals missed out on the top receivers in the early rounds, they can patiently wait for their next two first-round picks in the 20s to fill that position. Rather, they manage to acquire one of the top two corner positions, which is a significant requirement in Jonathan Gannon’s defensive strategy. Mitchell’s height and athleticism will greatly benefit him when facing challenging NFC West receivers.
12. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Mock trade: Eagles receive pick no. 12; Denver receives pick no. 22, and no. 50.
The Eagles have a pair of second-round selections. A trade here makes sense for both teams if the Eagles are determined to land one of the two top corners. Following Mitchell’s departure just before the Eagles’ pick, GM Howie Roseman quickly secures yet another talented player from Alabama. There are some things that always stay the same.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: OL Troy Fautanu, Washington
Similar to the Chargers, I expect that teams in the AFC West will exploit this year’s strong offensive talent pool to limit the playing time of the reigning two-time champions, the Chiefs, and their star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Fautanu, who hails from Las Vegas, has the size and strength to excel as an interior guard while also possessing the agility and arm length to play as an offensive tackle if necessary.
14. New Orleans Saints: OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
The trend of selecting offensive linemen early in the draft continues with Fuaga, who is arguably the top run blocker in this group. Known for his remarkable strength and agility, he was a dominant presence at right tackle in Corvallis for the last two years, and he showcased his exceptional blocking skills at this year’s Senior Bowl. Given the Saints’ apprehension about Ryan Ramczyk’s health, acquiring Fuaga would be a sensible decision. The Saints are in a desperate situation when it comes to their offensive line, and I can’t help but think that a trade-up could be a viable solution.
15. Chicago Bears: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State
I acknowledge that opting for Verse is an unconventional and tricky choice. However, from what I’ve been hearing, the Bears will choose him if they are unable to secure a top-three receiver. My prediction is that Chicago will opt for that route, given the absence of Odunze, Nabers, and Harrison in this mock. I was skeptical about Bowers joining the Bears, but now that he’s unavailable, the Bears won’t have the opportunity. The defense saw a significant transformation thanks to Montez Sweat’s performance last year. By adding Verse, Chicago hopes to improve their chances of becoming a legitimate playoff contender.
16. Seattle Seahawks: QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
This is what people refer to as fate. Geno Smith on a 1-year 805,000 contract, and Penix will be in the wait, learning behind Smith. For a franchise, it doesn’t get much better than this situation. Many in the media view Penix as a Day 2 selection, but league sources suggest he will be drafted in the top half of the first round. The Southpaw is the most accurate pocket passer in this class and an ideal fit as UW offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb, who is now Seattle’s OC) at No. 16.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Cooper Dejean, Iowa
Does DeJean play as a safety? Did you mean a cornerback? Is it possible to be both? Probably. While different NFL teams may have varying opinions, the Jaguars specifically require help in their secondary, and DeJean is a player who fits the profile of a top-tier defensive back. His coverage in 2023 resulted in a passer rating of 37.6, even lower than if a quarterback had thrown incomplete on every single attempt.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Byron Murphy II, Texas
After losing DJ Reader in free agency, the Bengals must strengthen their defensive line on the inside. Murphy is a perfect match, as he was the second-highest-rated interior defender (91.1) in college football last year. Murphy’s exceptional strength and explosive start make him a more formidable pass rusher compared to other interior defensive prospects.
19. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
Mock trade: Chiefs receive no. 19; Rams receive nos. 32, and no. 64.
Making a big leap on the draft board, the Chiefs traded their top 2 picks to secure Thomas, a speedy athlete standing at 6-foot-3 and weighing 209 pounds. Thomas topped college football in 2023 with 17 touchdown receptions. Given the uncertainties surrounding Rashee Rice and the high number of dropped passes by the Chiefs’ receivers last year, the team direly needs a skilled playmaker. In the draft, they chose a standout electric ball catcher.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Steelers may have made changes at quarterback with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, but their long-standing dedication to building a strong offensive line is unlikely to waver during a draft class that is known for its exceptional linemen. Pittsburgh might be interested in bringing together Mims and his former Georgia teammate Jones, as Jones showed enough potential as a rookie starter at right tackle last year that some think he could excel on the left side in the long run.
21. Miami Dolphins: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
If the first 20 picks are dominated by quarterbacks and receivers, there’s a chance that Miami could still get one of the top offensive tackles at No. 21. Fashanu shares similarities with Christian Darrisaw (No. 23 overall in 2021) and Andre Dillard (No. 22 in 2019) when they were entering the league. Like them, Fashanu is somewhat inexperienced in his technique and did not have the dominant collegiate season that was anticipated. On the positive side, Fashanu has the potential to be an outstanding starter.
22. Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix, Oregon
The general perception of Nix differs among the public. There are individuals who believe he is a good fit for Denver. There are those who doubt his level of success. The prevailing opinion is that Nix will most likely opt for Round 2. I agree with that sentiment, but if Penix is drafted as high as projected in this mock draft, the Broncos may be hesitant to take the chance of another team selecting Nix before them. Currently, it’s challenging to accurately assess their team. However, the Broncos will find a quarterback one way or another, and I don’t think they will spend too much time thinking about it.
23. Minnesota Vikings (from CLE through HOU): EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
The Vikings made a significant investment in free agent Jonathan Greenard, but transitioning to a 3-4 scheme will be difficult without additional support. Latu was a standout player at UCLA and is the most skilled pass rusher in this group. His durability concerns are the primary reason why he hasn’t been drafted earlier.
24. Dallas Cowboys: OL Graham Barton, Duke
With Tyron Smith now playing for the Jets and center Tyler Biadasz in Washington, Dallas is ready to field two backup special team players—Brock Hoffman and T.J. Bass plays at the center and left guard positions. The Cowboys desperately need talented players to start on their offensive line. Barton, who mainly played as a tackle for the Blue Devils, would transition to the center position in Dallas. He would be the most skilled center for the Cowboys since Travis Frederick. By making this pick, Dallas has the opportunity to regain its reputation as a team known for its strong blocking skills.
25. Green Bay Packers: OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
One thing we can say about GM Brian Gutekunst is that he won’t choose a receiver at this position. Guyton’s addition would greatly enhance the line’s potential and adaptability, especially with the absence of LT David Bakhtiari and G Jon Runyan Jr. Guyton had experience playing left tackle for the Sooners, although he primarily played on the right side. In Green Bay, there are options available, including the versatile OT Zach Tom, who has experience playing on both ends of the line.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State
According to scouts, there is a strong possibility that Robinson won’t be available at the 26th pick, as he is receiving significant interest from teams in the middle of the first round. However, he is present in this situation, and the Buccaneers need to find a replacement for Shaquil Barrett on the defensive line. Robinson’s first-step quickness is outstanding and adds to his explosive nature. While he only had four sacks in 2023, his pressure rate of 18% would have ranked fourth in the FBS if he had met the qualification.
Robinson is a promising pass-rusher who may need some time in a rotation as he continues to develop. However, his strong edge-rushing abilities have the potential to challenge Tampa Bay’s opponents.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU): CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
The Cardinals may consider selecting a pass rusher such as Chop Robinson, but since he’s not available in this mock draft, the need for a cornerback is equally significant. In contrast, Wiggins, the lively and athletic Wiggins, is the preferred choice. He has an abundance of athleticism, a fearless playing style, exceptional ball-tracking skills, and despite his slender build, he is not hesitant to make tackles. He is persistent and never gives up on his performances. Arizona fans can expect a more physical playing style from Wiggins, reminiscent of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who was drafted by the Cardinals in the first round in 2008.
28. Buffalo Bills: WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
It would surprise me if the Bills didn’t choose a receiver in the first round. It is possible that they will trade up to get one, but given the wide range of choices, I don’t think it will be necessary. At the NFL Combine, Mitchell completed the 40-yard dash in 4.34 seconds, earning him an athleticism score of 91. This impressive performance placed him in third position among all participants. He is seen as a potential franchise-level NFL receiver, possessing the right combination of size, speed, and the ability to catch passes in any location near him. With outstanding performances in both the College Football Playoff semifinals for Texas and the CFP national championship for Georgia, he is widely regarded as the top choice for the Bills.
29. Detroit Lions: DT Johnny Newton, Illinois
Newton’s ability to rush the passer from the interior is exceptional, reminiscent of Gerald McCoy and Tommie Harris, as he effortlessly slips past blockers and generates significant power. Adding Newton to a line that features rising star Alim McNeill and veteran acquisition D.J. Reader gives the Lions formidable depth and disruptive ability between the tackles. He greatly enhances Detroit’s defense, elevating Aidan Hutchinson’s performance while also compensating for weaknesses in the secondary and strengthening their ability to defend against agile quarterbacks running through the middle.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from BAL): OL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Mock Trade: Buccaneers receive no. 30 pick; Ravens receive: Nos. 57, and no. 89.
Following our earlier move to address a major defensive need, we are now doing the same for the offense. By utilizing one of our two third-round selections, we make a bold move, leaping from our late second-round pick to acquire a highly talented center towards the end of the first round. The Buccaneers have really felt the absence of Ryan Jensen in the vital center of their offensive line, and JPJ possesses all the necessary physical and mental qualities to seamlessly step into that role right from the start.
31. San Francisco 49ers: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
The Niners are strengthening their already outstanding defense by choosing McKinstry, a strong and aggressive cornerback with excellent size and physicality. Kool-Aid will provide the team with numerous choices for how it uses its secondary group. McKinstry will join a powerful group of cornerbacks that includes Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Ambry Thomas, Rock Ya-Sin, and Isaac Yiadom.
32. Los Angeles Rams: EDGE Darius Robinson, Missouri
Since 2016, when they drafted Jared Goff, the Los Angeles Rams have not made a first-round pick, but that could change in the upcoming NFL Draft. Darius Robinson is the pick here. The Rams badly need another rusher coming off the edge and Robinson is the best option in this spot. If the Rams wouldn't have traded with the Chiefs, getting Aaron Donald's replacement would've been the pick. The Rams would be unwise to leave the first round without at least one edge rusher to help generate pressure against guards, the Rams need to add a big man or two up front.
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You certainly do have a point in all of these picks. One thing I do not see happening though is the Chiefs trading up, Another thing I said in my mock draft was the Eagles trading with the Titans for Joe Alt. And, for what? Not picks. Players. I have the Eagles having pick #7 & #22.
I love who you have KC drafting. You sold me on the pick.
You might need a quick edit though- you have Newton going to two different teams near the end of the round. “Johnny” is his nickname, I think.