NBA Draft Lottery 2024: 4 Big Winners and Losers
The significance of winning the NBA Draft Lottery may be slightly diminished this year due to the abundance of diamonds in the rough prospects. Here, we go over the winners and losers of the lottery.
The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery has come and gone; some teams that finished their 2023-24 campaign in dreadful fashion got rewarded with a top pick, while other teams that were equally atrocious or even worse did not have luck play in their favor. At this point, rosters are believed to be improved for the July 27th NBA Draft.
The NBA draft offers hope that better days are ahead for some teams or that success can be sustained for other teams.
It’s hoped that you can draft a prospect with a No. 1 pick, such as Victor Wembanyama in 2023, find a prospect like Donovan Mitchell with a 13th pick, such as in 2017, or even find a superstar with a No. 3 pick, such as Luka Doncic in 2018.
The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards were the frontrunners to secure the No. 1 pick with the highest odds at 14%, despite their poor records of 14-68 and 15-67, respectively. Despite their 36-46 record, the Hawks had a slim 3% chance of winning the selection, with odds of +3000.
Against all expectations, on Sunday, the Atlanta Hawks emerged as the winners of the NBA draft lottery. Washington secured the second pick, while Houston came in at number three, San Antonio at number four, and Detroit at number five.
Winning the lottery last year was a reason for the San Antonio Spurs to rejoice, as it meant they had a chance to secure an extraordinary player like Victor Wembanyama. However, the 2024 NBA draft class does not have a standout prospect, and there is no widespread consensus on who the best player is.
The NBA draft lottery has produced both winners and losers, and here is the breakdown.
WINNER: Atlanta Hawks
It’s pretty clear-cut. Despite expectations of a weaker NBA draft class, the Atlanta Hawks emerged as the biggest winners on Sunday by moving from the 10th pick to the first pick in the Draft.
If the team is determined to separate Trae Young and Dejounte Murray in the backcourt, this draft pick or the chosen player could serve as an additional asset to enhance the trade package when moving either one of them. After a trade, the player chosen could also become an integral part of any remaining foundation, adding depth and strength to the team.
Atlanta could potentially improve the Murray-Young pairing by selecting a wing or big player that complements the team’s existing core from last season.
Adding to the intrigue is that the Hawks, who didn’t seem like a serious contender for the top pick, are now in the mix. They qualified for the play-in tournament and had just a three percent chance of winning the lottery. Taking a crash course in scouting the best stars might be necessary for the front office so they can improve their talent selection. Winning the lottery has opened up a plethora of options for the Hawks. And they cast their net wider, exploring options beyond just the players who are likely contenders for the first overall selection. There is much for the Atlanta Hawks to ponder before July 27th rolls around.
Loser: Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons have been enduring a rough patch for the past half-decade, with little improvement in sight.
Over the course of the last five years, their game-winning rate has been a paltry 24.5 percent. That’s dead-last in the league over that span, and the gap between them and 29th place is about the same as between 29th and 16th.
Once again, the Detroit Pistons found themselves with the NBA’s worst record for the second season in a row, and once again, luck was not on their side as they slid in the draft lottery. Despite having a 50-50 shot, the Pistons’ hopes were dashed as they ended up with the No. 5 pick. The sting of not having a Wembanyama in this year’s Draft lessened slightly, knowing that the Pistons still have the opportunity to select a productive player at No. 5. But, the fact is, the ping-pong balls did not bounce the Pistons’ way.
Despite years of lackluster basketball, the Pistons have yet to acquire a standout player. And though this class may not have had one, it would’ve been nice to look from the top pick rather than the fifth.
Winner: San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs already won what was likely the lottery of the decade in 2023, when they secured the right to take Victor Wembanyama first overall.
There was a 54.1 percent chance that the Spurs would secure a top-six protected pick from the Raptors. It worked out with near perfection. The Raptors were pushed down to the No. 8 pick, which they promptly shipped to San Antonio.
The Spurs also had a 42.1 percent shot of having their own pick land in the top four. They snatched that No. 4 pick to go along with No. 8. This is when you can say the Basketball Gods are blessing the Spurs beyond belief.
Nikola Topic is an intriguing option out of Serbia. Standing at 6-5, he has a remarkable physical presence and can break down defenses with his ability to drive to the basket. Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham are potential choices, along with defensive standout Stephon Castle from UConn.
Despite their lack of victories last season, the Spurs have a promising opportunity to improve quickly. With Wemby’s continued growth and the addition of young talent in the upcoming Draft, they can swiftly turn things around.
LOSER: Toronto Raptors
To retain their pick this year, the Raptors had to secure a spot within the top six of the Draft. They pivoted from a group trying to make the playoffs to one desperate to meet that goal by season’s end. Now, they have nothing to show from a miserable last few months of consistent losing. Their pick will be sent to the Spurs.
This marks the end of a disastrous trade they made at the 2023 trade deadline. In return for Khem Birch, the 2024 No. 8 pick, and two future second-round picks, they obtained Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl has been a good player but is worth far from the price tag he is currently being paid.
Toronto is still fortunate to have a first-round pick courtesy of a trade with the Indiana Pacers. However, having two chances in the Draft (or additional leverage for potential trades) is more advantageous than just one.
Winner: Houston Rockets
There were a couple of stretches this season when it looked like the Houston Rockets would have a real shot to make the postseason. They fell a little short of that dream, but they are far ahead of schedule regarding the progress of their young stars (Şengün, Jalen Green).
The Rockets had two chances to jump into the top four. If their own pick had landed there, then they would have kept it. Instead, they shipped off the No. 12 pick to the Thunder. They also owned the unprotected Nets pick, which had a 20.3 percent chance of going into the top four. That pick luckily landed at No. 3.
The team’s refusal to tank paid off with an impressive return. They significantly improved in the offseason and finished with a 41-41 record, a drastic improvement from their 22-win performance last season. The drawback is that they will need to surrender their 2026 first-round pick to either the Thunder or Sixers, but fortunately, they are moving in a positive direction.
Loser: Charlotte Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets are on an upward trajectory. They not only have LaMelo Ball, who is a standout player when he’s in good health, but they also drafted Brandon Miller as the second overall pick in the previous NBA Draft. Although this decision received a lot of criticism, it proved to be the right one, as Miller had an outstanding first year in the league.
The Houston Rockets surged into the top three of the NBA lottery, while Charlotte was pushed down to the sixth overall pick. This is not ideal for the Hornets, who are looking to build their roster. New Head coach Charles Lee has a load on his plate right now, varying from the struggles with the current roster to the devastating struggles of the team in recent years. The Hornets have been in a deep rebuild for the past five-plus years and posted a paltry 21-61 record this season.
As previously mentioned, a reconstruction like this can be time-consuming, but the team does have a promising player in LaMelo Ball, who can serve as the cornerstone. He will remain the main focus but also require another young star. Despite that, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams showed great promise in their growth this year. The Hornets would greatly benefit from enhancing their talent level at any position.
A guard for LaMelo Insurance and to pair in the backcourt with him is an intriguing option. Alternatively, they could draft another wing to pair with Miller. This is still possible at six, but the Hornets could have used more options toward the top of their Draft, especially considering the rebuild stage. Furthermore, the Hornets need to get the sixth pick right, which could be challenging in this year’s Draft due to the plethora of diamonds in the rough.
WINNER: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder, who had the second-best record, have reaped the benefits of stockpiling draft picks over the years. In 2019, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets, and as part of the deal, they received a top-four protected first-round pick from the Rockets in 2024. Since the pick didn’t make it to the top four, the Thunder will receive it, providing a team with a remarkable track record in scouting and drafting the chance to enhance their roster with another talented player. The Thunder have exceeded expectations in their rebuilding process and now boast a talented roster with multiple star players and great depth.
Sam Presti, the executive vice president and GM of the Thunder, will do everything possible to maximize the value of this pick. With a huge collection of draft picks, he has the flexibility to pursue any player he desires, whether he decides to trade up or trade down and accumulate additional assets for the team. The Thunder have a fantastic opportunity to take advantage of the Draft.
Loser: Portland Trailblazers
NBA teams that intentionally performed poorly to increase their chances of securing a top draft pick but failed can be considered losers of the lottery. Specifically, the Trailblazers are one of those teams.
Following a disappointing 2023-24 season, where they finished with a 21-61 record - the lowest in the Western Conference, they participated in the Draft Lottery with a 13.2 percent chance of securing the coveted first overall pick, the fourth-highest odds among all teams. Regrettably, fortune did not favor them, resulting in a seventh-place finish in the draft order.
With the 7th and 14th pick(Golden State) in the Draft and no more Damian Lillard, nobody is coming to save the Trail Blazers. The team that flourished in Portland for years now faces a bleak outlook.
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