In a game that could help shape the CFP, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 7 Penn State clash at the Horseshoe
In a game that could help shape the CFP, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 7 Penn State clash at the Horseshoe
We take a deep dive into this matchup and the implications that come with this contest
No. 7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0) at No. 3 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten), Saturday, noon ET (FOX)
Line: Ohio State by 4.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Series record: Ohio State leads 23-14 and is the winner of the last six.
A game that has been encircled on all of our football calendars since last offseason is ultimately just a couple of days away. No. 3 Ohio State plays host to No. 7 Penn State, who have steered away teams from finding their flaws in battle and have come into this game with their records unblemished at 6-0. They are making way for a high-stakes showdown at the Horshoe in Columbus, Ohio.
Kyle McCord and Drew Allar will respectively face the stiffest competition than they've faced all season in their young careers. As Marvin Harrison Jr. leads the way, the Buckeyes roster is packed with future NFL talent. On the other side, Penn State's secondary is led by projected first-round NFL Draft pick Kalen King. More specifically, anyone who looks on the field will be bound to see future NFL matchups.
James Franklin said this week that Penn State has "closed the gap" on the country's top-5 programs. Have they? The irony behind Penn State is that they have recruited their behinds off to get quicker, stronger, and more prominent. You would notice when the Nittany Lions play against the elite Power-five conference teams that they would need help with depth. So, on Saturday, we'll find out if they have shored up those glaring holes as the Nittany Lions attempt to defend Franklin's contention Saturday at Ohio State, where they face the No. 3 Buckeyes.
Need a quick refresher?
Here is your refresher on this rivalry: Penn State last won in Columbus in 2011 and is 1-8 against Ohio State during James Franklin's tenure. When it comes to the "big game" against the Buckeyes, his teams have yet to produce. But all but one of those games was decided by 13 points or fewer, and there has been no shortage of on-field spectacle, from a double-overtime Ohio State win in 2014 to Penn State's blocked field goal return touchdown in 2016 to one-point Ohio State comeback wins in 2017 and 2018. The Nittany Lions even led in the fourth quarter last year before the Buckeyes won by 13.
The Nittany Lions have nothing to be regretful of year by year. Losing to Ohio State is foreseen at this point. These games could have easily been a win for either side, but one thing that fans will always go back to is making the proper coaching determinations. On Saturday, watch this game closely. You may even have an opportunity to see a coaching situation that will be a paramount decision in the game's result.
Key Matchup
The Ohio State passing game vs. Penn State defense. Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord looks more relaxed every week, and he's throwing to the best receiver in the nation, Marvin Harrison Jr., his high school teammate in Philadelphia, to boot. Ohio State averages over 300 passing yards per game, while Penn State allows just 121.2. Something will have to give in this matchup. More likely than not, you will have the Nittany Lions' best cornerback, Kalen King, lined up against Marvin Harrison Jr., who went berserk in last year's matchup with ten receptions for 185 yards. Will this matchup end with the same result? We will soon find out, and if it does, expect another win by Ohio State.
Statistically speaking, the Nittany Lions have the best defense in the nation. The Buckeyes defense is also ranked in the top 10. Penn State's only win against a ranked team came in Week 4 when it routed then-No. 24 Iowa 31-0. The Buckeyes' signature win was a 17-14 thriller over then-No. 9 Notre Dame also on Sept. 23(this one still hurts me). All this information, and there is one thing I can tell you: unless you're all about analytics, this game is going to be played on the gridiron and not on paper.
Penn State Players to Watch
Nicholas Singleton: The running back said this week that he feels fresh physically, perhaps because he has just 89 attempts through six games. This also was meaningful ahead of Saturday. The way Singleton runs is a "hit you in the face" style; he takes joy in running someone over and letting the opposition know that he will be there all night. The Nittany Lions will rely on his legs on Saturday, but not just his legs; they will be using, at a minimum, three backs, all to keep those legs fresh.
Harrison Wallace III: Receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith needs some backup. There can not be a one-man show against the Buckeyes on Saturday. Wallace finally appears healthy enough to provide it. He will be giving quarterback Drew Allar a much-needed extra target. Wallace is an over-the-top threat who could disrupt the Buckeyes' secondary. The Lions, who have dropped an embarrassing 14 passes this season, also need some steadiness that Wallace can and will provide.
KJ Winston Jr.: Penn State should want to avoid a lot of man coverage against Marvin Harrison Jr., meaning a safety must help. Winston, at 6 foot 2, 203 pounds, is a physical defender who can help bracket Harrison and prevent the big plays that plagued the Nittany Lions last season. But be careful because when they bring him down, that will give the Buckeyes ample opportunity at the other receiver positions to go over the top.
Ohio State Players to Watch
Marvin Harrison Jr: Obviously, but this week still might be different. Oddly enough, Harrison dropped three passes at Purdue, which is the same number of passes he dropped during the 2022 season. The Nittany Lions have yet to have a single answer for him, which means covering with multiple defenders. The issue with dropping a safety to cover him with a cornerback is that there will be an open man, particularly if you have one of the better tight ends in the nation.
Cade Stover: The tight end scored a monumental fourth-quarter touchdown at Beaver Stadium last year and will be quite the matchup test for Penn State's linebackers again in this contest as one of the best tight ends in the country. He only needs a few targets to be impactful. According to Sports Info Solutions, Stover catches 78.3 percent of his passes for first downs. This will be problematic for the Nittany Lions as they can't double-cover Harrison Jr. and Stover, meaning someone will be in man-to-man coverage.
JT Tuimoloau: Penn State can't let the defensive end change another game. Tuimoloau did most of his damage against the right side of Penn State's line last year but is lining up against more left tackles this season. Could that mean a duel with Penn State's Olu Fashanu? Penn State's left tackle has ideal size (6-6, 317); Lions head coach James Franklin has consistently praised the fourth-year lineman for his play strength and his ability to recover if beaten initially at the snap. Fashanu neutralizes a defense's best edge rusher while protecting Allar's blind side. This will be an intriguing matchup.
The Prediction
Everything has aligned just right for Penn State to finally pull off the upset of Ohio State and catapult toward the College Football Playoff. But things are only periodically how they seem. After so many close losses over the years, I can't ignore all that noise, just like Drew Allar isn't able to on Saturday (see what I did there). It will be a one-possession game, like James Franklin has said all week, and I'm wondering if I've seen enough from the Penn State offense to demonstrate to me that this matchup against Ohio State will end up differently than the last six. The defense is entirely legitimate and could create chaos in the Lions favor. A win for either side wouldn't surprise me. There is a reason that Vegas has this game set at the -4 line, even they know that this is going to be a close game.
Ohio State 30, Penn State 27.
If you found this article enlightening, show your appreciation by clicking the “subscribe” icon below!
Thanks for reading, and come back soon for more.