College Football Week 14: CFP Scenarios, Conference Championship Previews
College Football Week 14: CFP Scenarios, Conference Championship Previews
With the impending conference championship weekend approaching, we indulge in the CFP scenarios and provide a preview of this weekend's games.
The College Football Playoff is still anyone's game as conference championship weekend looms ahead. In a first for the playoffs, all eight teams remain in contention, though some are clearly in a stronger position than others.
Just like every team has a path to the playoff, they also have uncertainties hanging over their heads. Should Alabama prevail against Georgia, would the playoff committee truly exclude the SEC? If both teams only have one loss, shouldn't Texas have the upper hand since they emerged victorious against Alabama? Does the absence of their starting QB for the season warrant a downgrade for Florida State? Should the Wolverines consider disbanding if they are defeated by Iowa?
There is a multitude of queries, and resembling a security guard endeavoring to impede students from invading the field, the playoff committee has not furnished any trustworthy indication of its potential inclination. Our plan is to establish a situation where equality prevails and pandemonium rules.
At the moment, there are four teams with only one loss and four teams that have yet to be defeated. Here's an interesting scenario: Texas defeats Oklahoma State. Georgia suffers a loss against Alabama. Louisville comes out on top against Florida State. Washington suffers a loss to Oregon. Michigan suffers defeat against Iowa. (Yes, that last paraphrase was a bit of a stretch.
Here’s what you have then: Georgia 12-1. Michigan,12-1. Washington 12-1. Florida State 12-1. Oregon 12-1. Texas 12-1. Alabama 12-1. Ohio State 11-1. Perfectly balanced, isn’t it? What is the first step in organizing this chaos?
In this situation, you would have three conference champions (Oregon from the Pac-12, Texas from the Big 12, and Alabama from the SEC) who, as of Friday afternoon, were ranked lower than their defeated opponents.
Is a conference championship more valuable than season-long excellence? Should, say, Alabama jump Georgia for winning the SEC championship, even though Alabama was ranked No. 8 and Georgia ranked No. 1 going in? If the answer is negative, what is the justification? If that's the case, shouldn't Texas be ranked higher than Alabama?
Additionally, when everyone has a single defeat, the emphasis shifts from the quality of victories to the quality of defeats. Simply put, Washington would have one loss against a conference champion. Does a loss in the title game have greater significance for Georgia, Michigan, or Florida State compared to the regular season? Who has more appealing losses, and who has less appealing ones? Will Michigan fans set fire to the bracket if Ohio State makes it into the playoff?
In the One-Loss Chaos scenario, the playoff foursome would likely consist of Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and possibly Georgia. Michigan? Washington? Ohio State as well? Florida State is probably the only school in this scenario without a chance, but that could change depending on various factors.
(And hey, while we're pondering outrageous scenarios — what if Florida State is the only team that manages to win?
Let's shift our focus from the scenarios to the game previews.
No. 3 Washington vs. No. 5 Oregon (Friday)
When: Friday, December 1st, 8 p.m. ET | Where: Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas, Nevada | ABC
There are plenty of captivating stories related to this. Despite Washington's undefeated record and head-to-head win over Oregon, the Ducks are heavily favored and have looked better since their loss in October. Can an Oregon victory secure a Playoff spot? Is Washington capable of winning another Pac-12 game? Quarterbacks Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. are competing for the Heisman Trophy. A delightful way to start the weekend on Friday night.
I'll discuss why I have less trust in Washington for the rematch. The Huskies offense, which was firing on all cylinders early in the year, has experienced a significant decline in performance. In their initial five games leading up to the first Oregon game, the Huskies maintained an average of 3.86 points per possession, displaying a 55.3% offensive success rate. Those numbers have seen a decline to 2.50 and 44.0%, respectively, in the five games subsequent to Oregon. Michael Penix's performance has experienced a significant downturn as well.
In the meantime, Oregon has resembled the highly efficient machine they were expected to resemble following the defeat. I believe that Oregon appears to be the second-strongest team in the country, and unless the Huskies offense performs well, it will be the Ducks who secure their spot in the CFP.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama
When: Saturday, December 2nd, 4:00 p.m. ET | Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, Georgia | CBS
I must confess that I lack a strong intuition for this particular matter. Georgia, flying under the radar for most of the season, aiming for a third consecutive win, could easily dominate a Bama team that relied on a last-second miracle to defeat Auburn. Or this could potentially manifest as another epic showdown between SEC titans. Neither scenario would catch me off guard. However, the agent of chaos within me desires to witness the Crimson Tide emerge victorious and leave a tumultuous aftermath for the CFP selection committee to navigate. Regardless, given the stakes, potential ramifications, the individuals involved, and the SEC's final appearance on CBS, this game claims the number one position.
Anyway, while both offenses have been terrific, these are still two of the best defenses in the country. In some ways, Alabama’s defense has flown under the radar this year, but it’s been incredible.
I've witnessed this narrative too frequently. Excellent defensive strategies are commendable, but superior offensive tactics frequently prevail. It's not excessively scientific, but this is a situation of an abundance of offensive talent in the field. You expect that there will be points on the board.
No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas
When: Saturday, December 2nd, 12:00 p.m. ET | Where: A T & T Stadium | Arlington, Texas | ABC
What a feat by Oklahoma State to reach this point, led by Big 12 offensive player of the year Ollie Gordon II at running back and coach of the year Mike Gundy — who got the nod over Texas’ Steve Sarkisian. Whether that ignites any additional motivation for Steve Sarkisian, regardless of whether that sparks any additional drive for Sark and the Longhorns, it is unlikely to have an impact. It appears improbable that the Pokes will possess sufficient resources to defeat a Texas team competing for a potential Playoff spot, despite Oklahoma State's propensity for unexpected outcomes, such as their upset victory over the aforementioned Oklahoma team that defeated the Horns.
No. 22 Tulane vs. SMU
When: Saturday, December 2nd, 4 p.m. ET | Where: Yulman Stadium | New Orleans, Louisiana | ABC
We'll immediately confront the obvious issue. The injury sustained by SMU QB Preston Stone last week altered the outlook of this game. That's not to imply that Stone is a dominant force, but he has been consistently effective throughout the season. Now, SMU must rely on freshman QB Kevin Jennings in a conference championship game. That's not an optimal position to be in, and it doesn't portend favorably for a formidable Tulane team with a seasoned QB in Michael Pratt.
This has the potential to be the pinnacle of the G5 championships and could potentially be one of the most outstanding games of the weekend. Neither team has suffered a defeat in league play. Tulane holds the top spot among G5 programs, and a victory would secure its consecutive appearance in a New Year's Six bowl game, following last season's remarkable comeback against USC. SMU boasts the most formidable offense (6.55 yards per play) and defense (4.5 yards per play) in the American conference, and an unexpected victory could propel the Mustangs past Liberty for the coveted New Year’s Six spot. Tulane's Willie Fritz's name has come up in discussions regarding the Houston position, and SMU is on the brink of joining the ACC.
Boise State vs. UNLV
When: Saturday, December 2nd, 3 p.m. ET | Where: Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas, Nevada | FOX
UNLV suffered a setback against a formidable San Jose State team last week and was defeated by Fresno State in conference play -- not to mention its loss to a fairly strong Michigan team in September. I would not be truthful if I said the Rebels had not capitalized on a favorable schedule. Despite that fact, based on my observations of both teams this year and the statistical analysis, the Rebels are a good match for the Broncos. It may sound cliché, but I would wager that the outcome of this game will hinge on the team's performance in third- and fourth-down situations. There, I have more trust in the Rebels.
Following San Jose State's surprising road victory over the Rebels, a three-way tie for first place in the standings forced the computer rankings to decide this matchup. However, the Spartans were left out. For the first time, UNLV will compete in the Mountain West Championship Game. Despite changes in coaching and losing their quarterback, Boise State won three consecutive games to secure a spot in the title game. The fact that the Broncos are favored on the road against the Rebels, who lead the league in points per game, is still surprising.
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 14 Louisville
When: Saturday, December 2nd, 8 p.m. ET | Where: Bank of America Stadium | Charlotte, North Carolina | ABC
The injury to Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis has made this one more intriguing than expected a couple of weeks ago. Furthermore, the Cardinals, who exceeded expectations in their inaugural season under Jeff Brohm, are entering the game with a sense of humility following their defeat against Kentucky. However, even with backup Tate Rodemaker leading the Seminoles to a hard-fought victory against Florida, the aim is clear: win and secure a spot. The committee won't exclude an undefeated Power-Five from the CFP, even if there are key injuries. It's the perfect way to cap off championship weekend.
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 17 Iowa
When: Saturday, December 2nd, 8 p.m. ET | Where: Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, Indiana | FOX
Michigan might seem to have overcome the hard part, with Coach Jim Harbaugh's suspension behind them and a third consecutive victory against Ohio State. Despite offensive challenges, the Hawkeyes' powerful defense and timely plays have led to another successful season, a caution for the Wolverines in Indianapolis.
LB Jay Higgins is the driving force behind the Iowa defense, boasting an impressive 141 total tackles. He expects to encounter Michigan running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards often and early in the game. If the game is played at Iowa's pace, Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy's patience will be crucial. The passing of Hawkeyes QB Deacon Hill isn't intimidating, but running back Leshon Williams could be a game-changer if he breaks loose. However, Michigan linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett are stingy with open spaces.
Let's face it, a couple of Michigan touchdowns will most likely make it a lost cause for the offense-challenged Hawkeyes. Iowa's potential for a game-changing return is significantly reduced with defensive back Cooper DeJean out.
Thank you for dedicating your time to reading the article, and we hope you will remain engaged for future updates.
By subscribing below, you can ensure that you stay notified with fresh content, especially if you find this article illuminating.
Thanks for the restack!